Russia Is Being Paid by Both Sides of the War It Is Fuelling
Washington is simultaneously sanctioning Russia, waiving those sanctions, and fighting a war that generates the oil revenue funding Russian operations.
Washington is simultaneously sanctioning Russia, waiving those sanctions, and fighting a war that generates the oil revenue funding Russian operations.
On 12 March, OFAC issued General Licence 134 — a 30-day waiver permitting delivery of Russian crude, including shadow fleet vessels the US spent three years sanctioning. The reason: the Hormuz closure removed so much oil from the market that conventional tankers cannot replace it without Russian supply.
The result is a three-policy contradiction operating in real time:
Policy 1: Sanction Russia to constrain its war economy.
Policy 2: Waive those sanctions because the Iran campaign needs Russian oil flowing.
Policy 3: Fight the Iran campaign that created the oil price spike earning Russia ~$150 million per day in additional revenue (ISW, 13 March 2026).
Urals crude now commands a $1.50/bbl premium at Shandong — Russia commands a premium, not a discount (Argus Media). The Financial Times estimates $3.3-4.9 billion in additional Russian revenue by end of March. ISW states its prior economic pressure forecasts on Moscow are "partially invalidated."
Meanwhile, Russian Krasukha-4 electronic warfare systems and Kometa-M anti-jamming modules — physically delivered to Iran by Il-76 transport aircraft — directly sustain Iranian warfighting capability against the same US-led campaign that is funding Russian operations.
Treasury Secretary Bessent's deadline to respond to a 14-question congressional letter on the waiver passed on 14 March with no public reply.
This is one of four cross-domain signals in today's GIZINT Daily Brief.
GIZINT is a daily intelligence brief covering geopolitics, defence, markets, and security. Every claim is source-attributed. No editorial line. No advocacy. Assessment only.
