In September 2025, the US Navy decommissioned the last of its dedicated Avenger-class minesweepers from Bahrain ([USNI News, 25 Sep 2025](https://news.usni.org/2025/09/25/last-u-s-avenger-mine-countermeasure-ship-in-middle-east-decommissions)). Weeks earlier, the MH-53E Sea Dragon airborne MCM detac
Zelensky invoked the US capture of Maduro as a warning to Lukashenko, citing new road and artillery construction near the Ukrainian border. The cross-theatre signal lands during active US-Belarus normalisation talks.
Hezbollah has fired an Iranian Paveh cruise missile. This is the first documented operational use of a 1,650km-class Iranian cruise missile by a non-state actor (Terrogence TGA0877, Mar 2026; Alma Center, 19 Mar; CTP-ISW, 14 Apr).
On 12 April, Trump declared on Truth Social that "the United States Navy will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships" in the Strait of Hormuz. He then instructed the Navy to "seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran."
Three US intelligence sources say China is preparing MANPADS deliveries to Iran via third countries. CAATSA Section 107 makes sanctions mandatory. The statute says shall impose. The question is whether the administration will comply with its own law.
Trump demands unconditional commercial reopening. Araghchi offers military-supervised passage with undefined "technical limitations." Tehran's framing amounts to this: Hormuz was never closed. Merely under new management.
The last state to toll a natural international strait was Denmark, abolished in 1857. Iran is now legislating, negotiating, and collecting tolls at Hormuz on three tracks simultaneously. Oman has said nothing.
Iran invoked sovereign waters. The US called Hormuz irrelevant. In the same week, both sides rejected the legal principle that kept the strait open for four decades.
Trump told four outlets in one day the US has nothing to do with Hormuz. The same day, China and Pakistan filed a five-point peace framework for the strait.
The White House listed four war objectives. Reopening the strait is not one of them. The Secretary of State says it will reopen. Gulf allies say the war cannot end without it. Iran says no negotiations have happened. Brent is up 55% in March.
Pentagon planning includes seizure of Kharg Island and coastal raids. Four war powers votes have failed. No AUMF exists. Congress returns Day 46.
Yemen's Houthis fired ballistic missiles at southern Israel on 28 March, their first strike on Israeli territory since the US-Israel campaign against Iran began a month ago (Al Masirah TV [Houthi-run], 28 Mar; IDF, 28 Mar). The IDF confirmed intercepting one missile. Sirens sounded across Beersheba.
Iran's IRGC Navy turned back three vessels attempting to exit the Strait of Hormuz on 27 March — hours after Trump extended his reopening deadline, citing ongoing talks (Truth Social, 26 Mar; NPR, 26 Mar), the day after Israel killed the commander it held responsible for the blockade.
Defence Minister Katz announced on 24 March that the IDF will "control the remaining bridges and the security zone up to the Litani" (Katz statement, 24 Mar 2026). All five Litani bridges have been destroyed since 13 March, severing the territory from Lebanon. The zone extends roughly 30km from the
The United States ordered the 82nd Airborne Division's command element and Immediate Response Force to the Middle East on the same day it sent Iran a 15-point peace plan through Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey (WSJ, 24 Mar; NYT, 24 Mar).
Ukrainian drones struck Primorsk — Russia's largest Baltic oil export terminal. Loading operations suspended. Four fuel tanks ablaze.
Oman, Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey, and Qatar confirmed active in intermediary efforts. Iran denied all talks — then the Foreign Ministry acknowledged the channel.
Trump demanded Iran reopen the strait within 48 hours. His own Treasury authorised Iranian oil sales the day before. The public record tells the story.
War-risk premiums run $3.6-6 million per VLCC voyage. The IRGC charges $2 million. The market made a rational choice — and that is why zero ships have used the US alternative.
Nine vessels have paid two million dollars each to transit the Strait of Hormuz under IRGC escort. Five nations are negotiating access. The blockade just became a business.
COMEX gold fell 7.26% while four Gulf states absorbed Iranian strikes and the Pentagon requested $200B. The mechanism: margin calls forced liquidation of the most liquid non-cash asset.
South Pars and Qatar's North Field are the same geological formation — the world's largest gas reserve, split by a maritime border. On 18 March, Israel struck gas-processing facilities at Asaluyeh, the onshore hub of South Pars.
On 2 March, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated publicly what no other official had quantified: Iran is producing "by some estimates, over 100 of these missiles a month. Compare that to the six or seven interceptors that can be built a month."
On 15 March, the Pakistan National Shipping Corporation Aframax tanker Karachi (IMO 9903413) became the first non-Iranian crude oil tanker to transit the Strait of Hormuz while broadcasting AIS since the war began on 28 February.
Russia earns approximately $1 billion per week in additional oil revenue from the conflict. China is the only major economy whose commercial shipping can navigate the Strait of Hormuz. Neither country fired a shot.
Same analytical engine. No jargon. Every crisis explained from the ground up. No corporate sponsors. No donors.
Get the Digest Read the opening dossier free →