The Pentagon Plans Ground Operations on Iranian Soil. Congress Is Not in Session.
Pentagon planning includes seizure of Kharg Island and coastal raids. Four war powers votes have failed. No AUMF exists. Congress returns Day 46.
The Washington Post reported on 28 March that Pentagon planning includes weeks of ground operations on Iranian territory, including seizure of Kharg Island and coastal raids near the Strait of Hormuz (WaPo, 28 Mar). Trump has not approved the plans. The 82nd Airborne's Immediate Response Force is deploying under Maj. Gen. Tegtmeier (Stars and Stripes, 25 Mar). USS Tripoli arrived in the CENTCOM area of operations on 27 March carrying the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit; a second amphibious ready group, USS Boxer with the 11th MEU, departed San Diego on 18 March and is separately en route (Military Times, 28 Mar; USNI News, 28 Mar). Separately, carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) departed Norfolk. Total theatre strength is approximately 50,000 including ordered deployments (Stars and Stripes, 25 Mar; Axios, 27 Mar).
The air campaign created the conditions for this. CENTCOM announced its 10,000th target on 25 March (CENTCOM/Cooper). But Reuters reported, citing five US intelligence officials, that only one-third of Iran's missile stockpile is confirmed destroyed; one-third is unclear; one-third remains operational or recoverable (Reuters, 27 Mar). The Critical Threats Project / Institute for the Study of War (CTP-ISW) reported IDF claims that 330 of 470 launchers have been destroyed or rendered inoperable (CTP-ISW, 27 Mar, citing IDF). The air campaign is approaching the limits of what it can destroy from the air. In several modern conflicts, the diminishing returns of air operations have preceded escalation to ground operations rather than ceasefire.
Today's brief covers the Islamabad four-nation diplomacy framework, the IRGC's escalation from military targets to universities, and the constitutional vacuum as the War Powers clock enters its final 30 days. Continue reading →
Kharg Island is the specific problem. Iran exported approximately 1.5 million barrels per day from Kharg through mid-March, handling over 90% of the country's crude exports (Kpler satellite tracking, March 2026). It is the primary oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf. Seizing it does not just pressure Iran; it removes the overwhelming majority of oil flowing through Hormuz while the IRGC demands up to $2 million per transit from some commercial vessels on an ad hoc basis (Bloomberg, 24 Mar; Fars [Iranian state media], 26 Mar). At current benchmark prices, Kharg represents approximately $145-165 million per day in Iranian export revenue depending on the Iranian crude discount (ICE Brent close $113/bbl, 27 Mar).
Congress has not authorised the use of force. The War Powers Resolution requires the President to terminate the use of forces within 60 days of deploying into hostilities unless Congress has declared war or enacted a specific authorisation; that clock started on 28 February and expires 29 April, with Congress in recess until 14 April (50 USC 1544; congress.gov). The administration contests this, asserting that Article II commander-in-chief authority provides sufficient legal basis for ongoing operations. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated on 25 March that "formal authorization from Congress is not necessary because we are currently in major combat operations in Iran" (White House briefing, 25 Mar). Four war powers votes have failed in both chambers (Roll Call, House 212-219, 5 Mar; Senate 53-47, 4 Mar; Senate 53-47, 18 Mar; Senate 53-47, 24 Mar). No AUMF has been introduced, requested, or drafted. The 82nd Airborne deploys under Article II authority alone. Congress returns 14 April. That is Day 46.
Full assessment in today's Daily Brief: Issue 020.
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